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Infrastructure can take heart from post Election certainty and confidence

But wafer thin majorities don’t necessarily make difficult decisions easy - and there are plenty of difficult infrastructure decisions on the horizon, warns Antony Oliver.

Political certainty breeds market confidence. And on that basis infrastructure professionals will be pleased to wake up this morning to news that David Cameron will have sufficient seats to form a Conservative government without need for long winded coalition horse-trading.

"Perhaps it's post Election euphoria, but to hear Boris Johnson already talking about lying in front of earthmovers to prevent Heathrow expansion does give a clue to what we might expect."

And of course the recent Infrastructure Intelligence Pulse survey clearly highlighted that infrastructure leaders favoured this outcome with 67% believing that Conservative policies and status quo are the best bet for infrastructure.

The reality is that over the last five years infrastructure investment has become established as a central plank in the UK’s road to economic recovery. Few in the sector would want to see any substantial change to this policy or, as Pulse also highlights, any interuption to the current momentum.

Yet for all the certainty and confidence that this outcome brings it is also clear that the next five years will not be simply business as usual and more of the same when it comes to infrastructure project delivery and investment. 

For a start, there were a number of high profile infrastructure supporting casualties last night, not least former chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander who has done much over the last five years to drive forward the National Infrastructure Plan.

Advocates such as Alexander will be missed in the new administration. We must hope that whoever takes over this role and the other roles vacated by decapitated ministers share his passion for long term investment in the nation. 

"Yet for all the certainty and confidence that this outcome brings it is also clear that the next five years will not be simply business as usual and more of the same when it comes to infrastructure project delivery and investment."

While the manifesto promises made by the Conservatives indicate no reason why this passion should disappear, we must also bear in mind that converting any such ministerial passion into real political decisions will not necessarily be quite so easy for Cameron’s new administration.

For all its compromise, the Coalition of the last five years did have a decent majority of over 70 seats to rely on to enact ideas and push through legislation. This new Tory administration may be free to steer its own path but, as we have seen in the past, wafer thin majorities don’t necessarily make difficult decisions easy.

And looking forward there are some pretty difficult decisions that will need to be made to keep on track projects such as High Speed 2, airport runway expansion in the South East, new nuclear power generation and to devolved powers to boost investment in the Northern Powerhouse.

Decisions that, for all the stated cross party support, are highly likely to engage newly elected MPs to act on behalf of their constituents and prompt rebellion against the Party Whip.

OK, perhaps it's post Election euphoria, but to hear Boris Johnson already talking about lying in front of earthmovers to prevent Heathrow expansion does give a clue to what we might expect as these difficult decisions hit the floor of the House.

Let’s hope not. Hiatus in decision making was one of the key fears raised by infrastructure leaders in the Pulse survey, preventing investment in resources and investment in skills.

"The last five years have demonstrated that we can create a meaningful pipeline of work to drive the economy over the long term. But it has also demonstrated that tough decisions have to be taken by an administration with a clear vision."

The last five years have demonstrated that we can create a meaningful pipeline of work to drive the economy over the long term. But it has also demonstrated that tough decisions have to be taken by an administration with a clear vision.

We still have that vision and the prospect of forming a new government quickly gives confidence that will make private investment readily available to continue the UK infrastructure revolution. 

What we don’t need is any post Election political dithering or unnecessary post ministerial reshuffle policy reviews to unpick the progress made to date.

And then there's the small matter of Europe.....

Antony Oliver is the editor of Infrastructure Intelligence.

If you would like to contact Antony Oliver about this, or any other story, please email antony.oliver@infrastructure-intelligence.com.